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Fiverr Pro
English
$
USD
I will build a custom sports probability model with monte carlo simulation
About this Gig
I build statistical probability models for sports, not AI-generated guesses or "expert picks." Real Monte Carlo season simulations, plus a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model for match-level soccer. Eight of these models are already live and monetized on Apify: soccer across 16 leagues, MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, tennis (ATP/WTA), a per-match soccer model, and an MCP server that plugs them into AI agents like Claude and ChatGPT. See them running before you hire me: apify.com/commodus67.
Every model runs thousands of simulated seasons (or re-simulates a tennis match live, set by set) and returns real probabilities: moneyline, spread, totals, series odds. Then it's checked against live market prices from Kalshi to flag where the model and the market disagree. That price comparison is the real product, not just a number.
I can build a new sport or league on the same proven engine, do a one-off read with an existing model, or a fully custom, private model or live API that's yours alone. I work in Python and deliver documented, readable code.
Data and models, not tips. Let's talk about what you're trying to predict.
Domain:
Machine Learning
•
Time Series Analysis
Expertise:
Classification
•
Clustering
•
Ranking
•
Predictive analysis
Programming language:
Python
•
SQL
Tools:
Jupyter Notebook
•
Excel
Technology:
Python
•
scikit-learn
My Portfolio
FAQ
Can you build a model for a sport or league you haven't published yet?
Yes - that's most of what Standard and Premium are for. I'll say upfront if I think the market's already too efficient to find an edge.
Do you guarantee profit or accuracy?
No - no legitimate model can promise that. You get transparent, documented statistics and a real price comparison, not a black box or a guarantee.
Can I see your existing models before ordering?
Yes, all eight are live and public at apify.com/commodus67 - there's even an MCP server so you can query them from Claude or ChatGPT directly.
What do you already cover?
Soccer (16 leagues, plus a separate per-match model), MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, and tennis (ATP/WTA). Anything outside that is a Standard or Premium build.
